Archives for March 2003
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War isn’t worth it
Joanne writes today that even she has to “hand it to Virginia Postrel for making some of the soundest arguments for war,” and links to Postrel’s latest column in the New York Times. Postrel cites a University of Chicago Business School study that claims war now is cheaper than ongoing containment. I’m not so sure I’d agree.According to the article, the study uses “a generous estimate of $125 billion for the direct costs of the war.” But that figure might not take into account all the costs of the war. For one thing, the military has been very surprised by the resistance they are facing in Iraq. This war may very well be longer and costlier than “generously” predicted, especially when you consider the possibility of an unforeseen long occupation.
In the end, the U.S. expects to have close to 250,000 troops on the ground in Iraq. This means reservists are being called up out of the productive sector of society–an economic cost. Also, consumer spending is down to near-decade lows on war fears.
Government spending on war right now means government deficits. Deficits mean higher interest rates and less capital available for productive purposes. Plus, to get this deficit spending through, Bush had to give up $100 billion out of his last tax cut.
Some may not believe it, but this war will also have costs in increased terrorism. Not only in the destruction we can expect, but also in increased security; we have a whole new department for that. As economists note, spending money on locks is wasteful. And I’m also afraid that increased terrorism and WMD-proliferation impelled by this war will give Bush further opportunities to seek other regime changes.
I’m certainly not an economist and wouldn’t even begin to know how to put dollar figures on each of these things. But I do know that corresponding dollar figures exist, and I’m pretty sure that if you were to add them up war wouldn’t look very attractive.
The problem is diffused costs and concentrated benefits.
Ask the local gentry
It’s official. My neighborhood has gentrified. A brand-spankin’ new Starbucks is opening up across the street from the Whole Foods.
Besides this, more than three new luxury apartment buildings are going up around here, including this one across the street whose construction wakes me up every day at 8 a.m. Plus tons of new little shops, restaurants, and art galleries where once there were only rat-infested abandoned row houses.
I must say that I’m thrilled about all of this. They say the economy’s tanking, but you wouldn’t know it by looking around where I live. I’ve never seen so much construction in the District–both residential and office space. Plus there are lots of new business opening up to service the Bobos who’ve discovered the blessings of downtown urban living. I guess DC is a bit insulated from the state of the economy because our industry is government, and that isn’t going anywhere.
Demand seems to be skyrocketing and rents are going through the roof. So how does yours truly afford to live in such an exclusive locale? Our old friend rent control. I paid my dues by moving in here when this area was resolutely a ghetto. Three years ago you wouldn’t dare walk after dark around where the Starbucks is now opening.
It’s times like these that make me doubt my free market principles. But seriously, they’re reinforced. My rent situation exemplifies public choice theory; and government didn’t renew the ghetto, yuppies and businesses did. The NYT’s lone libertarian, John Tierney, has consistently written great articles on urban issues. Here’s his take on rent control. And here’s a piece on gentrification. Tierney points to studies showing that people aren’t displaced by urban redevelopment; they stick around and they benefit–even those without rent-controlled dwellings.
But I can see how people would have problems ignoring anecdotal evidence. In four years the composition of my building’s tenants has gone from mostly black and working class immigrants, to young hip couples and smartly dressed gay guys (and me). More.
Absolutely indispensable
If you haven’t yet, check out The Agonist now. I don’t know how he does it, but the proprietor of that site, Sean-Paul Kelley, posts a (almost literally) minute-by-minute account of the war. He gets his information from sites across the Web, TV, readers and his own sources. He’s steadily been ahead of the curve relative to the networks.As soon as you finish reading Kelley’s latest update, you can hit F5 to refresh your browser and he’ll have a new one. He has kept me up late at night, and behind on my readings for class. For candid dispatches from journalists at the front, check out the BBC’s War Diaries blog. The URL moves around, but you can always find them from BBC News’ front page.
I still have little to say on all this, except that things obviously aren’t looking good. By my count there have already been about 100 coalition soldiers dead in just five days of war. If that average keeps up, support for war will wane. Also, the Pentagon might have been too confident in counting on mass surrender. In a city like Basra that has a population of 1.5 million, all you need is one percent of the people to remain loyal to Saddam (or at least opposed to American occupation) to pose a major obstacle. And this obstacle is there to stay going forward.
The good, the bad, and the ugly
The war lobby is gearing up to give us the big, inevitable “I told you so” that will come after the war–once Saddam’s VX and whatnot is found. They’re already pointing at citizens of Safwan welcoming American troops as liberators.
On the other hand, some folks have been warning not to count any chickens just yet. The U.S. isn’t going anywhere for a long time once it occupies Iraq, and it won’t be difficult for them to overstay their welcome.
If you’d like to contrast this picture of smiling kids in Safwan getting candy from the Marine, click here for a picture of a child with part of his head blown off. It’s from Basra were apparently over 50 civilians have been killed. I’m happy with the restraint the military has shown so far, but an invasion is an invasion. Civilians will die, and liberated Iraqis will hold the U.S. responsible.
And what about the democratic domino effect the neocons predict? Well, there may be a domino effect, but I’m not sure I like all the ways it can go. The ‘Arab street’ is getting restless.
But we’ll still get the I told you so. After all, al Jazeera, not ABC, shows the bloody footage. And if anything goes wrong, it’ll probably be nothing a little regime change somewhere else can’t cure.
Under the radar: Cuba arrests 65 dissidents
With the U.S.’s and, indeed, the world’s attention on Iraq, one wonders how much is going on in the world that on any other day would make the front pages, and how much of that is opportunistic.Cuba just arrested 65 dissidents. Among them are independent journalists (ie. Cubans who phone or fax out uncensored accounts of life on the island) and some leaders of the Varela Project.
Also, about 1,000 American troops backed by attack helicopters mounted a dawn assault on a string of mountain villages and caves in southeastern Afghanistan yesterday, according to the New York Times.
A little levity
Here’s a hillarious page with alternative meanings for the different “visual guides” available from the Department of Homeland Security’s new preparedness Web site, www.ready.gov.My new pastime: Watching helplessly
You know how I feel about the U.S. starting this war, so now that it’s begun, there’s no point dwelling on that anymore. Now all we can do is sit back and monitor, and then maybe help pick up the pieces later.So far, I’ve been surprised to find more info on TV than on the Web. But the best thing I have found on the Web so far is this minute-by-minute account from the BBC. It’s not some war blog, just a running list of facts updated as they happen. I noted before how useful this kind of streaming dispatch is when The Washington Post had a similar play-by-play for the anti-capitalist protests last September.
MORE: BBC reporters blogging from the front lines.
BONUS: Check out this picture. “We come to liberate you!”
One other observation
Tony Blair agonizes over winning support and authority from Parliament for military action against Iraq. Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan wrangles with his parliament over giving the U.S. access Turkey’s air space. Yet it’s funny (or sad, or both) that we don’t hear a single peep out of our Congress. You turn on a TV newscast or flip to your favorite news Web site, and it’s as if Congress hasn’t existed for over a month. And it will only get quieter after an attack.This underscores how unconstitutional this war is. Only Congress has the power to declare war as clearly stated in Article I, Section 8. It can’t just pass a law that says the it’s handing over that power to the president; that’s why the war power is in the Constitution. But it did. So sue them.
Franco spinning in his grave
Now that there’s no hope of averting war, I have little to say. You can read my new article in Brainwash about how it’s silly to say that this war is absolutely not about oil. But if you read this blog, you’ve heard all the arguments before.
My ears did perk up when I heard Iraqi Foreign Minister Naji Sabri ask today, “How can an ignorant, idiot man become president of the United States? A man who doesn’t know if Spain is a kingdom or a republic? How come that he can become the president of a clever people like the American people?”
Being the son of a very proud Spaniard mom, I immediately rolled my eyes at the latest embarrassment to come out of George W’s mouth. I mean, Spain fought a famously bloody civil war over this very issue. It’s like going to Poland and calling everyone “comrade”. But a little investigating proved that it was Sabri who committed a faux pas. Turns out that it was Jeb Bush, the president’s brother and governor of my own home state of Florida, who made an idiot of himself.
According to both Fox and CNN, Jeb was in Spain this week when, speaking in Spanish, he said: “I want to thank the president of the Republic of Spain for his friendship with the United States.” At least he got president right. Many in the press have been incorrectly calling Aznar prime minister.
Say hello to Dr. Evil
I don’t know what the hell I was thinking. I just have to keep telling myself it was for a good cause. Pictures from the shaving can be found in the photos section. Thanks to all those who contributed!!
Come see me lose my hair tonight
Tonight I’m having my head shaved to raise money for the National Childhood Cancer Foundation. If you haven’t already read my spiel on this, click here. Basically, people sponsor me to go bald. So far I’ve raised–get this–$666. Now not that I believe in… anything, but that’s a spooky number. Especially since the last $5 that put me there were from “Anonymous.”If you haven’t already contributed, it’s not too late. Click here and help me move into a holier figure. But even if you can’t contribute, you’re all invited to come see me lose my hair at a St. Patrick’s day party at Fado’s Irish Pub tonight (808 7th St. NW). The shaving starts at 7:30, but I’ll be there from around 5 on. Thanks so much for your generosity!!
No dominoes, no dice
The Los Angeles Times has a great scoop today. It got ahold of a classified State Department report assessing the possibility of democratization in post-war Iraq that concludes that 1) it’ll be tough, and 2) it’ll have little to no impact on the rest of the Middle East. Take this Wolfie:“Liberal democracy would be difficult to achieve,” says one passage of the report, according to an intelligence official who agreed to read portions of it to The Times.
“Electoral democracy, were it to emerge, could well be subject to exploitation by anti-American elements.”
The thrust of the document, the source said, “is that this idea that you’re going to transform the Middle East and fundamentally alter its trajectory is not credible.”
Even the document’s title appears to dismiss the administration argument. The report is labeled “Iraq, the Middle East and Change: No Dominoes.”
Sure, it’s a State Department memo, and it probably would have had a different spin had it been a Defense Department or White House memo. But who’s got the better expertise on this issue?
No matter what, it doesn’t take an al-Samoud scientist to figure out that in a country that is three-quarters Shia, but has been ruled by Sunnis forever, the outcome of democratic elections isn’t going to please the U.S. Not to mention our new best friends, the Iraqi National Congress, which isn’t exactly majority Shia. Also unhappy will be the Kurds, who no matter who’s at the head will press for independence much to Turkey’s chagrin. The only ones who may welcome democracy in Iraq is Iran. Yeah, great domino effect, George.
Interesting NYT war poll
A new New York Times poll of Americans shows that 66 percent of respondents approve of the U.S. taking military action against Iraq to try and remove Saddam Hussein from power. This is down from 74 percent a year ago. Those who disapprove went up to 30 percent from 18 percent a year ago.More interesting, though, is this tidbit: Forty-five percent believe Saddam Hussein was personally involved in the September 11th attacks. Also, 66 percent think the Bush Administration isn’t telling Americans everything they need to know about the reasons for possibly attacking Iraq.
Tear it down to build it up
It’s funny how many conservatives who have been opposed to past nation building adventures–in the Balkans, Haiti, Somalia, and elsewhere–all of a sudden are so keen to transform Iraq into the new democratic heart of the Mideast. Yeah, I know, I’m obsessed with that whole consistency thing.
Check out this gem I found from the BBC:
The US Government has invited companies to compete for projects which could begin in Iraq immediately after a war.
Plans for the rebuilding deals–worth up to $900m–are being co-ordinated by the United States Agency for International Development (USAid).
The agency is said to have discreetly sent out requests for tenders from at least five companies involved in infrastructure and engineering.
Education, health, transport and energy schemes are involved in what would be the biggest rebuilding project since World War II.
Plans for the reconstruction have been detailed in a privately distributed USAid document, called Vision for post-conflict Iraq.
A USAid spokeswoman said that the companies were chosen because of their proven ability, and that it was a policy to use US companies for projects funded by the American taxpayer.
Non-US companies were free, through their governments, to organise their own business, she said.
Among the companies invited to tender is the Texas-based Halliburton, where US Vice-President Dick Cheney served as chief executive from 1995 to 2000.
Halliburton has already been reported to have acquired a contract to oversee firefighting operations at Iraqi oilfields after any invasion.
Many more contracts will have to be awarded after any possible war.
Estimates of the cost of rebuilding a post-war Iraq vary widely - unofficial figures from the United Nations suggest it could be as much as $30bn.
I don’t think any comment is necessary. You draw your own conclusions.
BONUS: What happens to inspectors if Bush goes ahead with “Shock and Awe” next week? I mean, won’t they be taken hostages? Giving them advanced notice to evacuate would eliminate the element of surprise. Really, I’d like to know; I have no idea.
A quotidian lexicon
The never-jejune Atlantic Monthly has brought to my attention the new American Heritage College Dictionary’s editors’ list of “100 Words That All High School Graduates — And Their Parents — Should Know.” I intend to inculcate myself with this mini-lexicon and become more loquacious, but hopefully not supercilious.George, baby, it is about the oil
It’s so easy being right all the time, but most people insist on being right only half the time. ;o) This is why now, during wartime, I find myself in league with all sorts of leftists and dismayed by what many otherwise intelligent right-wingers say. Take George Will.Will is an interesting, if pompous, intellectual who usually gets it right. His specialty is surgically cutting apart the left’s arguments, and it’s usually delicious to watch. Until he’s wrong. Take his latest commentary from ABC’s This Week, which aired last Sunday.
First he calls me dishonorable or unintelligent (take your pick) for my conviction that this war is at least somewhat about oil. But then he goes on to make my point for me, saying, “The cost of waging war, plus the cost of any damage Saddam Hussein does to his oil facilities, plus the post-war costs of occupying and rebuilding Iraq, would far exceed any foreseeable U.S. gain from changing the Iraqi regime that will control Iraq’s oil.” He takes this to mean that the U.S.–which he apparently thinks is a monolithic being–would therefore do a cost-benefit analysis and not attack for the oil; that the reasons for war must lie elsewhere.
But what he fails to ask himself is who will pay for the war–both in cash and in blood–and who will profit from control or ownership of the oilfields? America suddenly doesn’t look so monolithic. It’s called public choice. I’m sure Will has heard of it, but he apparently applies it selectively.
He then makes the ridiculous point that if it’s oil we’re after, we should invade Canada and Mexico from whom we currently get most of our oil. But that’s just the point. Who controls the oil production in those countries? No need to invade. Who’s got the oil concession in Iraq? Oh, that’s right, France and Russia.
More selective arguments: Will says, “Remember, oil is fungible. It pours from many sources into the world market pool.” That’s very true. I hope he remembers to mention this next time George Bush uses the rhetoric of “energy independence” to justify giving ANWR to his oil buddies.
George Will, you’re a good man, but you’re still wrong half the time. (And man do you come off as a prick when you are.)
In memoriam
This post is in loving memory of a true American hero, George Mason. May you rest in peace, George. We will sorely miss you.
Tribute song here. Appreciation petition here.
Stay tuned, folks. I promise some more-substantive posts before the week is out. School and summer job interviews have been kicking my butt.
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This is the personal site of Jerry Brito, a lawyer and writer in Washington, D.C. He’s an academic researcher and the creator of Unclutterer and several other blogs. More »
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