Should we stay or should we go?

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After getting us entangled in the very type of nation-building adventure he ran against, President Bush now seems to want to cut bait before the elections next year. For someone like me who opposed going to war in the first place, the question is whether we can afford to get out now that we are entrenched.

“The goal of the enemy is not to defeat us militarily,” said top Mideast commander Gen. John Abizaid yesterday. “The goal of the enemy is to break the will of the United States of America, to make us leave.”

And while we’re not leaving yet, the enemy must be heartened to know that their Ramadan offensive has put the Administration in a tizzy requiring a last minute trip home by Paul Bremmer. They must also be pleased at the increasingly obvious frustration of the Administration with its hand-picked Governing Council.

The plan now seems to be to turn over sovereignty pretty soon and hold elections (much to Dominique de Villepin’s satisfaction, I’m sure). But who do you think the majority Shi’ia population will elect? What kind of constitution will Iraq end up with? If thousands of mujahideen are making their way through the porous borders now, what will the situation be like if we leave?

It’s already a terrible situation, but if U.S. troops left today, the Bush Administration would succeed in turning a contained, if brutally controlled, country that posed no threat to the United States into a new pre-9/11 Afghanistan with the difference that this one has oil and therefore a steady stream of income. Somebody please get these people a copy of Fareed Zakaria’s “The Future of Freedom“.

So, an anti-war guy like me is put in the uncomfortable position of arguing that we have to stay in Iraq. How long? Well, if we don’t leave before true liberal democracy and the rule of law have taken root in Iraq, we may not get out in our lifetimes. But if our goal is security–to America–then we can leave much sooner, although true democracy for Iraq wouldn’t figure into the equation then. If one good thing can come out of all this it’s that hopefully this war’s failure will temper future presidents’ bloodlust and military aspirations.

Nov 14, 2003 | Comments

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3 comments posted

  1. Posted by mom - 11/17/2003

    very good

  2. Posted by Tim Jones - 11/18/2003

    I’m surprised you think that any Iraqis would sucessfully gain control of Iraq should the US leave.

    I think there are many other parties with much better organisation and firepower who would rush to fill the power vacumn - Iran would find it hard to resist the temptation and I don’t think Turkey would stand idly by whilst the Kurds secured the Kirkuk oilfields.

  3. Posted by Jerry Brito - 11/18/2003

    Tim- I think you’re right about the Turks. But I don’t thik Iran would invade Iraq if the U.S. left today. They understand that the Bush Administration is just itching for an excuse to come after them, too. They would more likely support a homegrown Shi’ia regime. But of course, this is all speculative because the U.S. isn’t just going to pick up and leave from one day to the other. If they did what you would certainly have is a civil war that would destabalize the region and turn Iraq into a wonderful base for international terrorism.

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