Cuba’s precipitous slow opening

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Certainly not anything about which to get your hopes up, but since Raul Castro took over the reins in Cuba, there have been definite signs of opening on the island. The Sopranos announcement (below) really hit it home for me. Here’s the movement I’ve been observing over the past few weeks:

  • March 18 - Farmers allowed to buy their own supplies: “Agricultural sources said Cuba would soon open stores for farmers to buy tools, herbicides, boots and other supplies for the first time since the state took control of the country’s shops in the 1960s.”
  • March 29 - Cuba allows more cellphones: “Cuba announced Friday that it would allow ordinary citizens to purchase cellphones, which up until now have been set aside for Communist Party elite or those with connections.”
  • April 1 - Cuba Ends ‘No Cubans Allowed’ Hotel Policy: “President Raúl Castro’s new government will begin allowing Cubans to stay at hotels that were previously set aside for foreign tourists, the latest in a string of moves liberalizing internal restrictions on Cubans. In other changes, Cubans will be able to rent cars and buy cellphones, computers, microwaves and DVD players. However, with state salaries of about $20 a month, most Cubans will not be able to afford them.”
  • April 5 - Cuba giving land to private farmers: “The government is preparing for a “massive distribution of land,” Orlando Lugo, president of Cuba’s national farming association, said last week. Private farmers have begun receiving land for the cash crops of coffee and tobacco, and will soon be able to lease state land for other crops.”
  • April 11 - Cuba: Wage Limits Removed: “Cuba is revamping the state wage system to create more incentive by allowing workers to earn as much as they can[.]”
  • April 12 - Cuba to Allow Thousands to Own Homes: “Thousands of Cubans will be able to get title to state-owned homes under regulations published Friday, a step that could lay the groundwork for broader housing reform.”
  • April 21 - Sopranos and Grey’s Anatomy to be Broadcast: Tony Soprano is headed to Cuba because the go-ahead has been given for broadcasts of the prize-winning drama “The Sopranos” to begin on state-run television on Tuesday evenings, Reuters reported, citing the Communist youth newspaper Juventud Rebelde. And on Thursday nights, “Grey’s Anatomy,” about the lives of doctors working in a hospital, will be broadcast.

I knew that Raul Castro has always been a fan of the Chinese model, but these are relatively radical reforms coming as quickly as they are. In one sense this is good news for Cubans who will have a little bit more freedom and hopefully prosperity, but on the other hand it reduces the chance that there will be any democratic transition. I can see Raul opening enough to make the island into an authoritarian capitalist system without engaging in any real political reform.

Apr 23, 2008 | Comment | Tags: ,

On Bush’s Cuba speech

President Bush’s call for “an international ‘freedom fund’ for Cuba that would finance reconstruction,” gives me the heebie jeebies. Seriously? U.S. led reconstruction? You’re pitching that?

I don’t understand what the point of his speech was, or more to the point, why it was given now. Bush is not running for office again, so it’s not like he’s trying to gin up electoral support in Florida. WSo what does that leave? The U.S. is completely impotent when it comes to Cuba. The embargo precludes any leverage we might have over the regime. Our military is stretched thin, and our diplomatic credibility is at its nadir. How does Bush plan to have any impact on the island?

The sad truth is that Raul (with his Army) will take over completely when Fidel dies and there won’t be any uprising. What we can hope is that the event will give a future president an opening to remove the embargo and engage Cuba. Raul’s model is China, and hopefully he’ll at least emulate their economic openness. With time he’ll pass away too (he’s not much younger), and the technocrats and military men that take over will hopefully be persuaded by money to continue opening. ¡Hay, Cubita!

Oct 25, 2007 | Comment | Tags: , ,

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